Pierre,
I would say that controlling disk space usage using the index settings in Splunk is not quite an exact science. I've actually been tweaking my own a good bit lately to try to get splunk to stop using so much disk space. Since your log volume is a lot lower than mine [and has less variance] though, it should be easier to get things under control. I would say that 512Kb a second is probably far more than your server is logging if you only log 100mb total per day. However, a warmDB count of 7 sounds fairly reasonable to me. I'd say try it with 7 and if that's keeping too much data on disk, adjust accordingly. Keep an eye on the space that splunk is using by doing a du -sh on the directory like so:
du -sh /opt/splunk/var/lib/splunk
Also, as I've recently discovered, you have to keep an eye on how many colddbs your system is keeping. I just disabled mine entirely since it didn't seem to be working properly. So this is the setting I changed to do that:
<frozenTimePeriodInSecs>0</frozenTimePeriodInSecs>
As you can see, it set it to 0 since I was told that would prevent Splunk from creating colddbs. I plan to control disk usage by limiting the number of warmDBs. Maybe this isn't the "right way" to do things persay, but I'll bet it's effective. I apologize if this confuses you more. It's not exactly a straightforward process and I actually suggested a while back that they include a section in the installer that walks you through setting up index size settings with a few simple questions. I know that a "config tool" is planned, so perhaps in the future this will be a lot easier to set up!
I'll keep you posted on how things are going with mine, let me know how it works out for you and we'll compare notes!
Thanks!
Joe